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来源类型 | Report |
规范类型 | 报告 |
DOI | https://doi.org/10.7249/RR2849.2 |
来源ID | RR-2849/2-AF |
Geopolitical Trends and the Future of Warfare: The Changing Global Environment and Its Implications for the U.S. Air Force | |
Raphael S. Cohen; Eugeniu Han; Ashley L. Rhoades | |
发表日期 | 2020-05-11 |
出版年 | 2020 |
语种 | 英语 |
结论 | U.S. polarization and retrenchment will have global repercussions
China's rise must be regarded cautiously
In the wake of China's rise, Asian nations will reassess their positions
A revanchist Russia will pose a long-term challenge to U.S. security interests
European nations will face continued domestic upheaval that will constrain their ability to respond to Russia and limit their appetite for expeditionary operations beyond their borders
Turmoil in the Islamic world will likely continue
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摘要 | Carl von Clausewitz famously argued that "war is the continuation of politics by other means," and that aphorism remains as true in the 21st century as it was in the 19th: The future of warfare will depend on geopolitics. In this volume of the Future of Warfare series, RAND researchers examined six trends—U.S. polarization and retrenchment, China's rise, Asia's reassessment, the emergence of a revanchist Russia, upheaval in Europe, and turmoil in the Islamic world—to determine the drivers of conflict between now and 2030. Drawing on official strategy statements, secondary sources, and an extensive set of interviews across eight countries, this report explains how each of these trends has shaped conflict in the past and will likely continue to do so over the next decade. Together, these six trends point to three overarching findings. First, many of the underlying geopolitical assumptions in the U.S. National Defense Strategy for 2018—about the centrality of great-power competition and likelihood of aggression in the Indo-Pacific, Europe, and the Middle East—are correct. Second, although U.S. adversaries will likely remain relatively stable over the next decade, U.S. allies will likely change, especially as Europe becomes increasingly preoccupied with its own problems and as Asia reacts to the rise of China. Finally, and most importantly, U.S. strategists will face a deepening series of strategic dilemmas as the possibility of conflict in the Indo-Pacific, Europe, and the Middle East pull limited U.S. resources in different directions. |
目录 |
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主题 | China ; Europe ; Military Strategy ; North Atlantic Treaty Organization ; Russia ; United States Air Force ; Warfare and Military Operations |
URL | https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR2849z2.html |
来源智库 | RAND Corporation (United States) |
引用统计 | |
资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/524091 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Raphael S. Cohen,Eugeniu Han,Ashley L. Rhoades. Geopolitical Trends and the Future of Warfare: The Changing Global Environment and Its Implications for the U.S. Air Force. 2020. |
条目包含的文件 | ||||||
文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
RAND_RR2849z2.pdf(2198KB) | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
x1598441727091.jpg.p(6KB) | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 |
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