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Different retention models are needed for certain subgroups of CEAs

• Background analysis reveals that the career trajectories and retention profiles of certain CEAs vary across the different AFSCs.

Retention models can be created using specific data

• The types of S&I pays currently and historically available to each CEA AFSC, and the frequency and average amounts of the subset of S&I pays observable in the data, can be analyzed to determine which S&I pays may factor into the retention decisions of CEAs.
• RAND's Dynamic Retention Model can be adapted to model the retention profile of CEAs and used to simulate different compensation regimes.

This report provides the foundation for developing an analytic capability for determining the efficient amount of special and incentive (S&I) pay for U.S. Air Force career enlisted aviators (CEAs). The authors documented contextual information about CEAs, examined the retention profiles of CEAs and S&I pays available, and extended RAND's Dynamic Retention Model to create a version that models CEA retention profiles.

Background analysis reveals that the career trajectories and retention profiles of certain CEAs vary across the different Air Force Specialty Codes (AFSCs). These differences in retention and compensation suggest that different retention models are needed for certain subgroups of CEAs.

The authors extended RAND's Dynamic Retention Model to model retention profiles of In-Flight Refueling, Aircraft Loadmasters, and Airborne Mission Systems Operators, three CEA categories that share similar retention profiles and make up more than half of the CEA population among the cohorts included in this study. To demonstrate how this type of model can be used to model retention behavior in response to changes in compensation, the authors conducted a simulation in which basic pay increased by 5 percent. Future work will further extend the retention models to include other CEA AFSCs and S&I pays, and these will then be used to conduct simulations to estimate the efficient amount of S&I pays for Air Force CEAs.

• Chapter One

  Introduction

• Chapter Two

  Background on Career Enlisted Aviators

• Chapter Three

  Data and Retention Profiles

• Chapter Four

  Dynamic Retention Model Overview, Estimates and Fit

• Chapter Five

  Conclusion and Next Steps

• Appendix A

  Additional Background on Career Enlisted Aviators

• Appendix B

  Historical Selective Reenlistment Bonuses for CEAs