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来源类型 | Report |
规范类型 | 报告 |
DOI | https://doi.org/10.7249/RRA165-1 |
来源ID | RR-A165-1 |
North Korean Decisionmaking: Economic Opening, Conventional Deterrence Breakdown, and Nuclear Use | |
John V. Parachini; Scott W. Harold; Gian Gentile; Derek Grossman; Leah Heejin Kim; Logan Ma; Michael J. Mazarr; Linda Robinson | |
发表日期 | 2020-08-20 |
出版年 | 2020 |
语种 | 英语 |
结论 | Three other communist regimes — China, Vietnam, and Cuba — might offer clues about how North Korea might adopt a new economic model
A failure of conventional deterrence on the Korean Peninsula could quickly escalate to nuclear crisis
The United States and South Korea have significant abilities to control the circumstances that would lead North Korea to undertake nuclear use
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摘要 | This report is a compilation of three papers designed to stimulate discussion among those who are focused on North Korean decisionmaking. The first paper describes the experiences of North Korea and three similar authoritarian regimes — China, Vietnam, and Cuba — and provides a forecast of why and how North Korea might adopt a new economic model. The second paper describes decisions that the North Korean leadership might face in two scenarios in which conventional deterrence on the Korean Peninsula breaks down. The final paper provides an assessment of North Korean leadership decisionmaking about nuclear weapons doctrine. Despite the many unknowns surrounding the North Korean leadership decisionmaking process, these papers constructively outline the parameters of the North Korean decisionmaking "trade space" and the historical examples from which North Korean leaders might draw. |
目录 |
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主题 | China ; Communism ; Cuba ; Economic Policy ; International Trade ; Major Combat Operations ; North Korea ; Nuclear Deterrence ; South Korea ; United States ; Vietnam |
URL | https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA165-1.html |
来源智库 | RAND Corporation (United States) |
引用统计 | |
资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/524186 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | John V. Parachini,Scott W. Harold,Gian Gentile,et al. North Korean Decisionmaking: Economic Opening, Conventional Deterrence Breakdown, and Nuclear Use. 2020. |
条目包含的文件 | ||||||
文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
RAND_RRA165-1.pdf(1229KB) | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
1597929885065.jpg(7KB) | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | ![]() 浏览 |
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