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Long-term stressors before the storms added to the shock Hurricanes Irma and Maria delivered to Puerto Rico's economy

• Puerto Rico has experienced negative economic growth and associated outmigration of labor due to a variety of factors since the phaseout of Section 936 manufacturing tax advantages in 2006.
• Outmigration of capital, labor-force participation, and public debt are other long-term challenges with multiple root causes.
• Cost of doing business, tax structure, the Jones Act, labor policies, and federal entitlement programs all have impeded Puerto Rico's economic growth.

Short-term impact of the hurricanes to economic activity was severe, and investment objectives should be steered toward long-term, sustainable growth

• A large informal economy exists in Puerto Rico, which distorts the labor market and depresses property tax revenue, making government spending, relative to tax revenues, unsustainable.
• Areas of special importance to the Puerto Rico economy, and the recovery effort, are tourism, trade and transportation, agriculture, manufacturing, fisheries and the ocean economy, and the nonprofit sector.
• Investments related to strategic initiatives should be targeted to areas that support growth across multiple sectors and contribute to the reversal of economic contraction experienced over the past decade.

Recovery of the Puerto Rico economy in the aftermath of Hurricanes Irma and Maria means not only rebuilding the public and private infrastructure, supply chains, human capital, and other contributors to economic output but also reversing negative economic trends that existed and presented major challenges to growth even before the storms hit.

In their report, the authors explain the history of economic development and policy in Puerto Rico and discuss the state of the prestorm economy, including key economic challenges. They use the historical data on overall economic activity (unrelated to the hurricanes) to construct a counterfactual to assess the net causal effect of Hurricanes Irma and Maria on Puerto Rico's economy. The counterfactual examines what would have happened to employment, labor, population, and tourism, as well as the government of Puerto Rico's fiscal position, had the hurricanes not occurred. Observed economic indicators following the storms are then compared to this counterfactual to estimate the real net economic consequences of the hurricanes, including overall damage from the storms and the effect of the recovery effort.

The analysis provides considerable detail on the conditions in Puerto Rico before and after the 2017 hurricane season so that decisionmakers can adopt better policies in rebuilding a sustainable and healthy economic sector and, more broadly, the whole of Puerto Rico. The authors recommend a set of principles based on economic theory and provide courses of action included in the recovery plan compiled from their findings about prestorm conditions and trends and the input/observations of on-the-ground partners and stakeholders in the recovery effort.

• Chapter One

  Introduction

• Chapter Two

  Brief History of Economic Development in Puerto Rico

• Chapter Three

  Detailed Economic Prestorm Conditions and Trends in Puerto Rico

• Chapter Four

  Challenges to Economic Development in Puerto Rico

• Chapter Five

  Methodology for Economic Damage Assessment Following Hurricanes Irma and Maria

• Chapter Six

  Economic Damage Assessment Following Hurricanes Irma and Maria

• Chapter Seven

  A Set of Principles for Public Investment Consistent with Economic Growth in Puerto Rico

• Chapter Eight

  Potential Courses of Action for Economic Development in Puerto Rico Following Hurricanes Irma and Maria

• Chapter Nine

  Conclusions

• Appendix A

  Detailed Courses of Action

• Appendix B

  Notes on Electricity Deregulation and Privatization

• Appendix C

  Supplemental Information on the Jones Act

• Appendix D

  Case Studies of Economic Growth

• Appendix E

  Government Promotion of Entrepreneurship

• Appendix F

  Recovery Spending and Impacts