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Different approaches to assessing AV safety—measurement, process, and thresholds—complement each other, with no one best approach

• Leading measures remain key to assessing AV safety given the lack of crash-based lagging measures.
• Among leading measures, approaches to roadmanship, the ability to drive on the road safely without creating hazards and responding well to hazards created by others, are growing.

Because existing measures are insufficient to assess AV safety, more attention is being paid to processes—steps taken by developers and how these steps are implemented—and what they indicate

• These processes include safety-relevant standards-setting activities, a growing emphasis on safety culture, and widening use of safety cases (collections of assertions defining how safety is being promoted and assessed).
• Compliance with regulations is also a process, but its reach remains smaller than that for conventional vehicles.

Thresholds—which can be qualitative as well as quantitative—are another way to assess AV safety

• The most straightforward threshold is human driving performance.
• Other thresholds relate to AV performance and absolute goals.
• Thresholds will evolve as technology develops, commercial use expands, and expectations rise. Meeting thresholds is not a one-time achievement.

Communicating about AV safety shapes public trust

• Although messages about AV safety come from many sources, the provenance of messages is not always obvious to the general public.
• A RAND American Life Panel survey demonstrates the importance of how communications with the general public are structured.
• The public has the greatest trust in AV safety messages from government.

Establishing whether automated vehicles (AVs) are acceptably safe is not straightforward, and continual technology modification adds complication. RAND Corporation researchers analyzed three categories of approach—measurements, processes, and thresholds—and noted the different kinds of evidence associated with each, the ways in which different approaches can be used together, and the degree to which stakeholder groups agree on the merits of these approaches. This report complements discussion of measurement and analytical issues with a discussion of challenges in communicating about AV safety, especially to the general public. Its recommendations are aimed at both industry and government.

• Chapter One

  Introduction

• Chapter Two

  Safety as a Codified Concept for AVs

• Chapter Three

  Safety as a Measurement

• Chapter Four

  Safety as a Process

• Chapter Five

  Safety as a Threshold

• Chapter Six

  Communicating About Safety

• Chapter Seven

  Conclusions and Recommendations

• Appendix A

  American Life Panel Survey

• Appendix B

  Interviews

• Appendix C

  Literature Highlights