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For areas not anticipating heavy damage, sheltering in place is generally safer than evacuation during the COVID-19 pandemic

• Because most of Virginia is generally not in the path of the most-dangerous hurricane conditions, the spread of COVID-19 through evacuation is likely to be deadlier than sheltering in place.
• In areas likely to have heavy damage, residents should evacuate earlier than in a normal hurricane season to reduce the risk from heavy rain and other transportation hazards.
• The projected number of deaths from increased sheltering in place is orders of magnitude lower than that expected from evacuation (caused by traffic accidents and COVID-19 spread) and COVID-19 spread in communal shelters.

The relative safety of communal shelters versus self-evacuations depends on COVID-19 spread levels

• Smaller shelters increase the attractiveness of communal sheltering relative to evacuating in terms of avoiding COVID-19.
• If community COVID-19 case levels are high, individuals in the area are more likely to spread the disease to evacuation destinations and in communal shelters.
• Alternatively, if community COVID-19 case levels are low, the risk of individuals spreading the disease by evacuation or in communal shelters is low.

As of August 24, 2020, the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic had resulted in the deaths of approximately 2,500 Virginians. The 2020 hurricane season began June 1 and is considered to be extremely active. The threat of the pandemic increases the complexity of risk management decisions during the hurricane season. In this report, the authors study the implications that a hurricane during the COVID-19 pandemic would have for the Commonwealth of Virginia. This analysis should help inform advance planning for the hurricane season in general and could be used in response to a specific storm with an estimated track through Virginia. The authors focus on the combined impacts of COVID-19 and a hurricane on morbidity and mortality; they do not examine other effects, such as effects on infrastructure, social networks, and the economy.

• Chapter One

  Introduction

• Chapter Two

  Risk Framework

• Chapter Three

  Data and Methods

• Chapter Four

  Results and Sensitivity

• Chapter Five

  Conclusions

• Appendix

  Select Models in Use by Emergency Managers