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The United States and Indonesia share deep concern about China's ambitions for regional dominance and willingness to violate international norms in pursuit of these ambitions

• Both states, however, would prefer a strategy that corrals China into compliance with global norms over one based on military confrontation.

Indonesia remains fiercely opposed to what its strategists term blocs

• It is highly suspicious of the intentions of any foreign powers.

Indonesia regards China as its only realistic near-term military foe, with a specific potential for military confrontation over its Natuna Islands near the South China Sea

• But because of the imbalance of military capabilities, as well as China's enormous economic leverage, Indonesia has very little appetite for military confrontation.

Many items in the U.S. playbook of security engagement will run into institutional barriers in Indonesia

• These barriers include low levels of military funding, a security policymaking bureaucracy that is not designed for speedy decisions, and a tendency to make security policy on an ad hoc rather than a doctrinal basis.

The U.S. Department of Defense's (DoD's) 2018 National Defense Strategy highlights the importance of working with regional allies and partners in order to manage China's rise as a strategic competitor to the United States in the Indo-Pacific region. In this country-level report in a series, the author examines the potential for, and potential impediments to, partnering more closely with Indonesia.

In many ways, Indonesia is a natural partner: Its self-defined core national security interests, including the preservation of its sovereignty against encroachment by any would-be hegemonic regional power, are in relatively close harmony with those of the United States. But U.S. planners must be keenly aware of the constraints on Indonesia's willingness and capacity to forge a partnership based on strategic competition with China. These constraints include persistent aversion to any partnership that might be characterized as "alignment"; enduring antiforeign attitudes, particularly in military circles; strong desire to balance security engagement among the widest possible array of nations; deep and growing economic linkages with China; an institutional mindset for the military that is geared more toward internal stability than external defense; historical and ongoing underfunding of basic military needs; and a lack of military capability and interoperability sufficient for frictionless interaction with U.S. forces. Although Indonesia will remain an important U.S. partner, such challenges should moderate expectations about the pace for increased engagement.

• Chapter One

  Indonesia in the Context of U.S.-China Competition

• Chapter Two

  Indonesia's Geostrategic Importance, Institutional Outlook, and Desire for Nonalignment in Diplomatic and Political Relations

• Chapter Three

  Indonesia's Economic Relationship with China, and Country-by-Country Relationship Sketches

• Chapter Four

  Assessment and Outlook

• Chapter Five

  Options for the United States, U.S. Department of Defense, and U.S. Air Force

• Appendix A

  Detailed Framework Variable Coding

• Appendix B

  Overview of Indonesia's Military

• Appendix C

  Indonesia's Security Policymaking

• Appendix D

  Politics, Public Opinion, Other Sources of Influence, and Outlook