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Range upgrades alone provide only a portion of possible benefits, and restationing can significantly increase effectiveness

• • The increase in effectiveness depends on which institutional policies the USAF is willing to change or manage. Most significantly, if Air National Guard squadrons cannot be consolidated near advanced training ranges, the potential benefits of restationing are substantially limited.

• Using the current basing posture and planned range upgrades, the F-22 squadrons might not have access to advanced training ranges.
• In the near term, the analysis suggests a large potential benefit from consolidating F-22 squadrons near an upgraded range.
• The largest opportunity to improve readiness in the long term is integrating the range modernization plan and the F-35 rollout.

Range upgrades may be substantially more expensive over the long term

• The one-time cost for restationing a fighter squadron and the cost to procure equipment for range modernization are on the same order of magnitude. However, when research and development and operation and sustainment costs are taken into account, range upgrades may be substantially more expensive over the long term.

The risk from hazards and threats could affect anticipated effectiveness or cost associated with particular basing decisions

• There is significant variability in electric power reliability and exposure to natural hazards and climate effects across USAF fighter bases and ranges that might require different levels of investment to recover from or mitigate disruptions.

The U.S. Air Force (USAF) has determined that its fighter pilots do not currently have sufficient access to training ranges with airspace, threat emitters, targets, and electronic support measures capable of representing advanced potential adversaries. The USAF is developing a plan to upgrade certain ranges with these capabilities. In addition, the USAF may consider potential fighter squadron restationing options that would improve access to the upgraded training ranges.

The authors developed an optimization model to determine the combinations of range upgrades and squadron restationing options that provide the highest levels of effectiveness given different policy constraints. They developed one-time move costs associated with squadron restationing and compared those with preliminary range upgrade cost estimates. Finally, the authors collected data on the risks from natural hazards and power outages for the set of bases and ranges under consideration.

The authors found that range upgrades alone might not ensure sufficient access to advanced ranges and that restationing fighter squadrons can provide additional access, but the amount depends on institutional freedom to make restationing decisions. The one-time costs for restationing a fighter squadron and range modernization are on the same order of magnitude, but range upgrades may be substantially more expensive over the long term. The authors recommend that the USAF assess the effectiveness, costs, and risks of restationing presented in this report against other potential solutions for providing access to advanced ranges.

• Chapter One

  Introduction

• Chapter Two

  Effectiveness Analysis

• Chapter Three

  Cost Analysis

• Chapter Four

  Risk Analysis

• Chapter Five

  Conclusions

• Appendix A

  2025 Fighter Force Structure

• Appendix B

  GCMs and Risk Metrics