全球智库信息集成服务系统

• Chinese authorities acknowledge the inevitability of competition but reject the notion that conflict is inevitable.
• China's international strategy aims to establish the country's primacy in the Asia-Pacific region and to establish Chinese leadership of the international order.
• China's international leadership would bear little resemblance to the forms exercised by previous global leaders; exercising a partial global hegemony centered principally on Eurasia, the Middle East, and Africa, Chinese international leadership would be characterized by a reliance on finance, diplomatic engagement, and security assistance to exercise influence while maintaining a modest overseas military presence.
• China's standard for successful competition with the United States entails the following conditions by midcentury: (1) War with the United States is avoided, although this does not exclude the possibility of militarized crises or conflicts of a limited scope; (2) the United States respects China's authority as the global leader; (3) the United States largely refrains from harming Chinese interests; (4) China has established primacy across much of Eurasia, the Middle East, and Africa; (5) U.S. primacy has been reduced to the Americas; (6) the United States and China manage their differences according to norms upheld by China; and (7) the two cooperate on shared concerns on terms defined largely by the Chinese.
• The consequences of Chinese success in strategic competition could be severe for the United States. Poorly positioned to unseat China or easily reverse its own flagging fortunes, the United States could face dwindling economic prospects, international marginalization, and a diminishing ability to shape global affairs.

Focusing on the international and defense dimensions of U.S.-China competition, the authors of this report make three contributions. First, they intend this report to serve as a planning tool by positing international and defense strategies that could allow China to outcompete the United States. Second, they mean to educate readers on Chinese strategy and policy processes. Third, the authors seek to encourage greater public debate about the nature and stakes of the competition.

As presented by the authors, China's international strategy aims to establish the country's primacy in the Asia-Pacific region and leadership of the international order. The international strategy presented seeks to achieve this end state through peaceful methods, although it does not rule out the possibilities of militarized crises or even conflicts of a limited scope, such as proxy wars. The core of the proposed international strategy is a reliance on China's economic prowess and diplomatic maneuver to put Beijing into a position of advantage from which it cannot be dislodged by the United States. A complementary defense strategy would aim to constrain Washington's ability to forestall or prevent its own eclipse by building a superior Chinese military that renders the risks of military conflict intolerably high. A major Chinese military responsibility would be to support diplomatic efforts to shape a favorable international environment by building strong security ties with client states and discrediting or weakening the appeal of the United States as an alternative.

• Chapter One

  Introduction

• Chapter Two

  Context: Strategy, Frameworks, and Processes for Achieving the China Dream

• Chapter Three

  Context: International Framework, End State, and Directives

• Chapter Four

  Context: Defense Framework, End State, and Directives

• Chapter Five

  Chinese Perspectives on Competition with the United States

• Chapter Six

  China's Desired End States for U.S. Competition

• Chapter Seven

  China's International Strategy for U.S. Competition

• Chapter Eight

  China's Defense Strategy for U.S. Competition

• Chapter Nine

  Vulnerabilities in China's Approach to U.S. Strategic Competition

• Chapter Ten

  Conclusions and Implications

• Appendix

  Sample Subobjectives for the International Dimension of China's Strategy for U.S. Competition