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• Based on the research into the five individual LOEs, it is apparent that whilst none offer a comprehensive solution in their own right, PALYs (LOE1), VSL (LOE2), logic models and proxy indicators (LOE4) and DCEs (LOE5) each offer opportunities that could pave the way for an improved understanding of defence's contribution to prosperity.
• Insurance techniques (LOE3) cannot measure primary benefits, but could support defence decision-making by helping to conceptualise, manage and 'price' defence risks.

Despite the growing policy emphasis on understanding the value of UK defence, assessing the primary benefits of defence remains a challenge. Defence is inherently complex, and it remains difficult to prove that the non-occurrence of an event (e.g. a conflict) is directly related to the existence of defence capabilities and activities. Linked to these challenges, connecting defence activity and output to defence outcomes and benefits remains elusive.

This study has explored the potential of five methodologies (lines of enquiry — LOEs) to measure the contribution of defence to UK prosperity in terms of its primary benefits (i.e. protection from external threats). These are:

This study has identified a range of insights for the Ministry of Defence on how to apply and further develop these methodologies towards measuring the primary benefits of defence. This study has been exploratory, and it was expected that not all approaches would be viable.

• Chapter One

  Introduction

• Chapter Two

  Identification of candidate methods

• Chapter Three

  Deep dive into potential approaches

• Chapter Four

  Assessment framework for defence

• Chapter Five

  Conclusions and implications for defence

• Annex A

  Definitions

• Annex B

  A potential logic model for UK defence