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Although Russia presents short-term challenges, China poses a greater threat to U.S. interests in the Middle East in the long term

• China is economically and demographically larger, globally engaged, and has been strengthening its armed forces across all domains of warfare.
• Chinese documents routinely accuse the United States of maintaining a "Cold War mindset." Chinese officials view modern strategic competition as similar to the Cold War in that it is global in scope and not geographically contained to the Indo-Pacific region.
• Russian objectives often place Moscow in opposition to the goals of the United States and its allies. Russia views itself as occupying a place of privilege and significant influence in its immediate post-Soviet neighborhood and seeks recognition as a great power.

China and Russia have approached the region differently, but both have sought to remain on good terms with all Middle Eastern states, regardless of intra-regional disputes

• Both countries are diplomatically active in the region, as reflected by their senior leaders visiting the majority of countries there, often multiple times.
• Russia has been far more active than China in the military domain, even prior to its military intervention in Syria in 2015.
• China has pursued economic engagement while remaining cautious about deepening its involvement in regional diplomatic and security affairs.

Although U.S. strategic competition with China and Russia is largely focused on efforts in Asia and Europe, this competition will play out in other regions, including in the Middle East. This report details the political, economic, and military interests and activities of China and Russia in the Middle East, and identifies where those efforts contest, intersect, or complement U.S. interests and activities. The authors systematically identify the dimensions and locations in which strategic competition is occurring, where it is most likely to take place in the future, and where and how it is most likely to threaten U.S. interests. They provide recommendations for the steps that U.S. policymakers might take to maintain an advantageous position in the region and in strategic competition with China and Russia.

• Chapter One

  Introduction

• Chapter Two

  Views of Strategic Competition

• Chapter Three

  Strategic Competition in the Middle East

• Chapter Four

  Shaping Strategic Competition in the Middle East in the U.S. Interest

• Appendix

  A Panorama of the Great Powers in the Middle East