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• The main strategic enabler for the UK to shape developments in the High North resides in sustaining effective relations with Arctic countries.
• Good bilateral relations can also rely on military cooperation, leveraging the UK's 'hard power' capabilities and mechanisms for defence engagement.
• On science, climate and environment, the UK has strong assets and arguments to seek a greater role in the Arctic and broader High North region.
• Development in the Arctic may provide opportunities for growing government and commercial space capabilities, given the UK's access to relevant orbits.
• The Arctic may become an increasingly important consideration for the UK economy in coming decades, presenting both opportunities and risks.
• International fora tend to focus on legal and economic levers but offer only limited opportunities to develop military influence within the Arctic.

In recent years, the Arctic and wider High North have re-emerged as an area of concern for policymakers, reflecting changes in climate and geopolitics. Rapid ice-melting and associated changes — such as rising sea levels resulting from higher temperatures — are opening new maritime routes and access to natural resources. Ongoing climate and environmental changes are rightly provoking global concern, but also bring renewed political, security, military and economic interest in the Arctic.

Though the UK is not an Arctic state, its strategic position neighbouring the region, its reliance on sea lines of communication, its role in NATO and its leadership on climate-change issues all entail a need for close engagement with developments in the High North. The Integrated Review released in March 2021 emphasised the UK's strategic interests in the Arctic and broader High North region. The Defence Command Paper that accompanied the Integrated Review similarly emphasised the importance of the High North in maintaining security in defence of the North Atlantic and called for enhanced capabilities and use of multilateral partnerships to better secure the region.

To be successful, the UK's approach must be underpinned by a clear understanding of the different diplomatic, information, military and economic levers through which the government can exert influence, either unilaterally or through cooperation with others. This project identified areas for further action or investigation, including a need to better understand how different parts of government could work together on High North issues and how the UK could maximise its influence over developments in the High North through international fora.

• Chapter One

  Introduction

• Chapter Two

  Strategic challenges and opportunities out to 2050

• Chapter Three

  Prospects for a cross-government approach to UK strategy

• Chapter Four

  Prospects for a multilateral approach to UK strategy

• Chapter Five

  Conclusions

• Appendix A

  List of interviews

• Appendix B

  Interview protocol