G2TT
来源类型Report
规范类型报告
DOIhttps://doi.org/10.7249/RRA1094-1
来源IDRR-A1094-1
Mitigating Challenges to U.S.-Russia Strategic Stability
Samuel Charap; John J. Drennan; Luke Griffith; Edward Geist; Brian G. Carlson
发表日期2022-02-17
出版年2022
语种英语
结论

Various historical developments relating to the sides' nuclear forces and their other strategic capabilities have led to an asymmetry of perceived vulnerability to preemption

  • The United States has pointed to certain Russian activities as problematic or even destabilizing, but Washington has not raised concerns that Moscow could undermine its retaliatory capability.
  • Although the United States lacks the ability to deliver a decisive disarming blow, it does maintain far greater counterforce capabilities and leaves open the possibility of using its strategic forces for damage-limitation strikes.
  • The United States continues to develop related strategic capabilities, such as ballistic missile defense, that Moscow believes could be used in concert with a counterforce nuclear strike to blunt Russia's deterrent.

There are four major consequences for the United States of Russia's growing concern about its ability to retaliate after a counterforce first strike

  • Russia has developed a suite of new capabilities to address this concern.
  • Russia seems unwilling to reduce its strategic nuclear forces below current levels.
  • The overall stability of the bilateral relationship has eroded.
  • Russian concerns about preemption might incentivize a first strike in a serious crisis.

Policy changes could mitigate the current instability in the U.S.-Russia deterrence relationship

  • Self-restraint measures would provide a degree of reassurance about the parties' lack of intention to execute a preemptive counterforce strike by complicating the ability to carry out such a strike on short notice.
  • These modest steps could mitigate the negative consequences of current approaches without dramatic changes in force structure, posture, or employment policy.
摘要

The U.S.-Russia strategic stability paradigm rests on the shared confidence that one side's preemptive counterforce strike would fail to disarm the other side. Both sides are mutually vulnerable to retaliation, and thus have no incentive to strike first. Yet the United States has developed significant prompt counterforce capabilities that Moscow fears could be used for a first strike. These threat perceptions have become a significant source of instability in recent years. The authors examine the historical origins of this dynamic and its impact on bilateral stability. They also evaluate possible policy changes that could mitigate that impact.

,

The authors identify significant consequences for the United States that could arise from Russia's growing concerns about its ability to retaliate, such as Moscow's development of a suite of novel capabilities to address this issue and the potential crisis instability resulting from use-them-or-lose-them fears. Although these negative consequences are significant, they should be weighed against the benefits provided by current U.S. posture that are documented by the authors.

,

The report outlines self-restraint measures—that the United States and Russia could take either together or unilaterally but in coordination—that would provide a degree of reassurance about the parties' lack of intention to execute a preemptive counterforce strike by complicating the ability to carry out such a strike on short notice. These modest steps could mitigate the negative consequences of current approaches without any dramatic changes in force structure, posture, or even employment policy. The stabilizing effect of these steps, however, could be significant.

目录
  • Chapter One

    Introduction

  • Chapter Two

    A Brief History

  • Chapter Three

    Defining the Problem

  • Chapter Four

    U.S. Policy Considerations

  • Chapter Five

    Possible Policy Changes

  • Chapter Six

    Conclusion

主题Arms Proliferation and Control ; Nuclear Deterrence ; Russia ; United States
URLhttps://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA1094-1.html
来源智库RAND Corporation (United States)
引用统计
资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/524718
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Samuel Charap,John J. Drennan,Luke Griffith,et al. Mitigating Challenges to U.S.-Russia Strategic Stability. 2022.
条目包含的文件
文件名称/大小 资源类型 版本类型 开放类型 使用许可
RAND_RRA1094-1.pdf(1990KB)智库出版物 限制开放CC BY-NC-SA浏览
x1644442017661.jpg.p(3KB)智库出版物 限制开放CC BY-NC-SA浏览
个性服务
推荐该条目
保存到收藏夹
导出为Endnote文件
谷歌学术
谷歌学术中相似的文章
[Samuel Charap]的文章
[John J. Drennan]的文章
[Luke Griffith]的文章
百度学术
百度学术中相似的文章
[Samuel Charap]的文章
[John J. Drennan]的文章
[Luke Griffith]的文章
必应学术
必应学术中相似的文章
[Samuel Charap]的文章
[John J. Drennan]的文章
[Luke Griffith]的文章
相关权益政策
暂无数据
收藏/分享
文件名: RAND_RRA1094-1.pdf
格式: Adobe PDF
文件名: x1644442017661.jpg.pagespeed.ic.dYyOHJ1TQ2.jpg
格式: JPEG

除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。