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来源类型 | Report |
规范类型 | 报告 |
DOI | https://doi.org/10.7249/RRA1094-1 |
来源ID | RR-A1094-1 |
Mitigating Challenges to U.S.-Russia Strategic Stability | |
Samuel Charap; John J. Drennan; Luke Griffith; Edward Geist; Brian G. Carlson | |
发表日期 | 2022-02-17 |
出版年 | 2022 |
语种 | 英语 |
结论 | Various historical developments relating to the sides' nuclear forces and their other strategic capabilities have led to an asymmetry of perceived vulnerability to preemption
There are four major consequences for the United States of Russia's growing concern about its ability to retaliate after a counterforce first strike
Policy changes could mitigate the current instability in the U.S.-Russia deterrence relationship
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摘要 | The U.S.-Russia strategic stability paradigm rests on the shared confidence that one side's preemptive counterforce strike would fail to disarm the other side. Both sides are mutually vulnerable to retaliation, and thus have no incentive to strike first. Yet the United States has developed significant prompt counterforce capabilities that Moscow fears could be used for a first strike. These threat perceptions have become a significant source of instability in recent years. The authors examine the historical origins of this dynamic and its impact on bilateral stability. They also evaluate possible policy changes that could mitigate that impact. ,The authors identify significant consequences for the United States that could arise from Russia's growing concerns about its ability to retaliate, such as Moscow's development of a suite of novel capabilities to address this issue and the potential crisis instability resulting from use-them-or-lose-them fears. Although these negative consequences are significant, they should be weighed against the benefits provided by current U.S. posture that are documented by the authors. ,The report outlines self-restraint measures—that the United States and Russia could take either together or unilaterally but in coordination—that would provide a degree of reassurance about the parties' lack of intention to execute a preemptive counterforce strike by complicating the ability to carry out such a strike on short notice. These modest steps could mitigate the negative consequences of current approaches without any dramatic changes in force structure, posture, or even employment policy. The stabilizing effect of these steps, however, could be significant. |
目录 |
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主题 | Arms Proliferation and Control ; Nuclear Deterrence ; Russia ; United States |
URL | https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA1094-1.html |
来源智库 | RAND Corporation (United States) |
引用统计 | |
资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/524718 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Samuel Charap,John J. Drennan,Luke Griffith,et al. Mitigating Challenges to U.S.-Russia Strategic Stability. 2022. |
条目包含的文件 | ||||||
文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
RAND_RRA1094-1.pdf(1990KB) | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
x1644442017661.jpg.p(3KB) | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 |
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