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• U.S. strategic choices, such as the encirclement of Raqqa, likely increased civilian harm.
• The coalition made considerable efforts to protect civilian life, but there remains room for improvement.
• Civilian casualties in Raqqa were not as high as one might predict, given the high levels of structural damage.
• ISIS's defensive tactics deliberately put civilians in harm's way.
• Extensive structural damage in Raqqa undermined post-battle governing prospects and long-term U.S. interests.
• Airpower was not used to shape the battlefield in Raqqa, which made civilian-harm mitigation more difficult.
• Restrictions on U.S. ground forces made preventing civilian harm more difficult.
• Irregular partner forces were less precise than U.S. forces would be and increased the risk of civilian harm.
• A lack of sources to provide better local information impeded civilian-harm mitigation efforts.
• Flawed DoD processes and poor collection of civilian casualty data hindered the military's ability to assess and analyze civilian harm in Raqqa.

The battle for Raqqa, Syria, seemed like a perfect storm of strategic and operational challenges. When the city was finally liberated from the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) in October 2017, 60 to 80 percent of it was estimated to be uninhabitable. In fact, the battle for Raqqa is a cautionary tale about civilian harm in 21st-century conflicts.

The purpose of this report is to discuss how the U.S. military — which is the best-trained and most technologically advanced military in the world, is supported in Operation Inherent Resolve by an international coalition of more than 80 countries, and was partnered in Raqqa with a well-respected militia force on the ground — could cause significant civilian harm despite a deeply ingrained commitment to the law of war.

In this report, RAND researchers study the causes of civilian harm in Raqqa and provide insights into how the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) can reduce civilian harm in future operations.

• Chapter One

  Introduction

• Chapter Two

  DoD Policies and Procedures for Mitigating Civilian Harm

• Chapter Three

  The Battle for Raqqa: Overview and Operational Approach

• Chapter Four

  Civilian Harm in the Battle for Raqqa

• Chapter Five

  The Contribution of ISIS Defensive Tactics to Civilian Harm in Raqqa

• Chapter Six

  Civilian-Harm Mitigation Challenges for Air Forces

• Chapter Seven

  Civilian-Harm Mitigation Challenges for Ground Forces

• Chapter Eight

  Civilian-Harm Mitigation Challenges Working by, with, and Through Partners

• Chapter Nine

  Civilian-Harm Mitigation Challenges for Intelligence Efforts

• Chapter Ten

  Challenges Identifying, Reporting, and Investigating Civilian Harm in Raqqa

• Chapter Eleven

  Findings and Recommendations