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来源类型 | Report |
规范类型 | 报告 |
DOI | https://doi.org/10.7249/RRA595-1 |
来源ID | RR-A595-1 |
Disrupting Deterrence: Examining the Effects of Technologies on Strategic Deterrence in the 21st Century | |
Michael J. Mazarr; Ashley L. Rhoades; Nathan Beauchamp-Mustafaga; Alexis A. Blanc; Derek Eaton; Katie Feistel; Edward Geist; Timothy R. Heath; Christian Johnson; Krista Langeland; et al. | |
发表日期 | 2022-04-14 |
出版年 | 2022 |
语种 | 英语 |
结论 | Collections of emerging technologies hold significant implications for both the effectiveness and stability of deterrence
An emerging transition to new ways of warfare, empowered by these same emerging technologies, poses more general risks to U.S. deterrent policies than does any single technology
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摘要 | The authors examined potential effects that emerging technologies could have on U.S. national security policy and identified long-term effects that these technologies might have on effectiveness and stability — two major aspects of deterrent relationships. They did this by pursuing several phases of analysis. First, the researchers selected a specific set of eight technology areas from the numerous technologies that could play a role in shaping the practice of deterrence. They then took several complementary steps to assess the problem of deterrence, competitors' views of it, and possible criteria for evaluating the effects of technologies. In parallel with these research efforts, they conducted in-depth assessments of each of the eight technology areas. Finally, they employed four discrete lines of analysis — four "lenses" — to generate possible causal relationships between the eight technology areas and deterrence outcomes. ,This report highlights two overarching findings of this analysis. First, collections of emerging technologies — especially in the realms of information aggression and manipulation, automation (including automated decision support systems), hypersonic systems, and unmanned systems—hold dramatic implications for both the effectiveness and stability of deterrence. Second, an emerging transition to new ways of warfare, empowered by these same emerging technologies, poses more general risks to U.S. deterrent policies than does any single technology or set of technologies. This research was completed in September 2020, before the February 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. It has not been subsequently revised. |
目录 |
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主题 | Communication Technology ; Cyber and Data Sciences ; Emerging Technologies ; Military Strategy ; Military Technology ; United States Air Force ; Warfare and Military Operations |
URL | https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA595-1.html |
来源智库 | RAND Corporation (United States) |
引用统计 | |
资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/524771 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Michael J. Mazarr,Ashley L. Rhoades,Nathan Beauchamp-Mustafaga,et al. Disrupting Deterrence: Examining the Effects of Technologies on Strategic Deterrence in the 21st Century. 2022. |
条目包含的文件 | ||||||
文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
RAND_RRA595-1.pdf(1077KB) | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
x1649423142636.jpg.p(4KB) | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 |
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