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Key findings

• The drivers of armed conflict in Europe have changed since the CFE was signed in 1990. However, CAC measures grounded in an updated analysis of such drivers could significantly improve European security.
• Military factors that could bring on ­Russia-NATO conflict include military activities or exercises in strategically sensitive locations, enhanced readiness, massing of forces, violations (real or perceived) of airspace or maritime borders, long-range strike deployments, and threats to vulnerable lines of communication.
• Innovative CAC measures could address these factors, thus increasing warning and decisionmaking time, complicating surprise attacks, and lowering overall tensions.
• A CAC agreement that incorporates such measures would reduce the risk of conflict through misunderstanding and miscalculation.