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来源类型 | Discussion paper |
规范类型 | 论文 |
来源ID | DP161 |
DP161 Smugglers' Blues at the Central Bank: Lessons from Sudan | |
William H. Branson; Jorge Braga de Macedo | |
发表日期 | 1987-03-01 |
出版年 | 1987 |
语种 | 英语 |
摘要 | The ineffectiveness of real devaluation as a stabilization policy does not imply that the nominal exchange rate should be held constant in the face of a domestic inflation. In this circumstance, import duties and export subsidies would have to be escalated to counter the potential erosion of the trade balance. Such an escalation of trade barriers, however, generates a rising black market premium and increases the incentive to smuggle, already a pervasive problem in the African countries. As a consequence, the central bank would find it more and more difficult to hold the nominal exchange rate constant. This leads us to consider a passive exchange rate policy of stabilizing the real exchange rate by moving the nominal rate in line with domestic inflation. Unless such a passive policy is accompanied by the elimination of trade barriers, however, the black market premium will not disappear. Unless exchange rate policy and trade policy are consistent with each other, the smuggler's blues will reach the central bank. Indeed, this is not just a theoretical possibility. It is the major lesson to be drawn from the recent experience of Sudan. |
主题 | International Macroeconomics ; International Trade and Regional Economics |
关键词 | Black market premia Devaluation Exchange rates policy inflation Smuggling Stabilization policy |
URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp161 |
来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/529317 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | William H. Branson,Jorge Braga de Macedo. DP161 Smugglers' Blues at the Central Bank: Lessons from Sudan. 1987. |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
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