G2TT
来源类型Discussion paper
规范类型论文
来源IDDP161
DP161 Smugglers' Blues at the Central Bank: Lessons from Sudan
William H. Branson; Jorge Braga de Macedo
发表日期1987-03-01
出版年1987
语种英语
摘要The ineffectiveness of real devaluation as a stabilization policy does not imply that the nominal exchange rate should be held constant in the face of a domestic inflation. In this circumstance, import duties and export subsidies would have to be escalated to counter the potential erosion of the trade balance. Such an escalation of trade barriers, however, generates a rising black market premium and increases the incentive to smuggle, already a pervasive problem in the African countries. As a consequence, the central bank would find it more and more difficult to hold the nominal exchange rate constant. This leads us to consider a passive exchange rate policy of stabilizing the real exchange rate by moving the nominal rate in line with domestic inflation. Unless such a passive policy is accompanied by the elimination of trade barriers, however, the black market premium will not disappear. Unless exchange rate policy and trade policy are consistent with each other, the smuggler's blues will reach the central bank. Indeed, this is not just a theoretical possibility. It is the major lesson to be drawn from the recent experience of Sudan.
主题International Macroeconomics ; International Trade and Regional Economics
关键词Black market premia Devaluation Exchange rates policy inflation Smuggling Stabilization policy
URLhttps://cepr.org/publications/dp161
来源智库Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/529317
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
William H. Branson,Jorge Braga de Macedo. DP161 Smugglers' Blues at the Central Bank: Lessons from Sudan. 1987.
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