| 来源类型 | Discussion paper
|
| 规范类型 | 论文
|
| 来源ID | DP162
|
| DP162 Currency Inconvertibility, Trade Taxes and Smuggling |
| Jorge Braga de Macedo
|
| 发表日期 | 1987-03-01
|
| 出版年 | 1987
|
| 语种 | 英语
|
| 摘要 | In the classic analysis of smuggling, importers choose the optimal mix of legal and illegal trade, given trade taxes and the technology of detection. This paper introduces an inconvertible currency into the framework, so that illegal trade is valued at a rate higher than the (fixed) official exchange rate. Sections 1 and 2 show how the smuggling ratio and the domestic price mark-up for the import and export good are simultaneously determined. With balanced legal and illegal trade, changes in the (long-run) black market premium are a weighted average of changes in trade taxes, whereas changes in the smuggling ratios depend on the ratio of trade taxes. Thus, an import tariff and an export subsidy rising at the same rate would keep smuggling ratios constant but would lead to a rising black market premium (sections 3 and 4). In Section 5 we present a model explaining the determination of export and import quantities. The model explains the production of exports and non-traded goods and the consumption of imports and non-traded goods, and assumes that the government confiscates traded goods that are unsuccessfully smuggled. Export production may fall and welfare may rise if trade taxes have a negative effect on the relative price of exports and imports which is stronger than the positive effect on smuggled exports and imports (which is always welfare-reducing). Section 6 introduces a portfolio balance model explaining the short-run behaviour of the black market premium. In this model, rising trade taxes may be associated with a premium which increases even more rapidly if there is unreported capital flight. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics
; International Trade and Regional Economics
|
| 关键词 | Black market premia
Capital flight
Currency inconvertibility
Portfolio balance model
Smuggling
Trade taxes
|
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp162
|
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
|
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物
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| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/529318
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推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714 |
Jorge Braga de Macedo. DP162 Currency Inconvertibility, Trade Taxes and Smuggling. 1987.
|
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