| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP213 |
| DP213 Econometric Modelling of the Birth Rate | |
| John F Ermisch; Eric De Cooman | |
| 发表日期 | 1987-12-01 |
| 出版年 | 1987 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | In this paper we explore two econometric approaches to data on parity-specific birth rates in England and Wales during the postwar period. Both approaches can accommodate complex dynamic adjustments within birth rates and focus on adjustments of fertility behavior in response to changes in certain labor market variables: the ratio of women's to men's wages, a cohort's long-term level of female attachment to the labor market, the relative size of generations, price inflation, real earnings and unemployment. The first approach uses a panel data estimator, while the second divides the data into time-series for five-year age groups. The latter method appears more promising for short-run forecasting. |
| 关键词 | Birth rates Fertility Forecasting Labour markets Panel data |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp213 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/529369 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | John F Ermisch,Eric De Cooman. DP213 Econometric Modelling of the Birth Rate. 1987. |
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