| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP243 |
| DP243 Brazilian Debt: A Requiem for Muddling Through | |
| Rudiger Dornbusch; Eliana Cardoso | |
| 发表日期 | 1988-05-01 |
| 出版年 | 1988 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This paper investigates the roles played by the global macroeconomic environment and by Brazilian policy in shaping the Brazilian debt crisis, and assesses the prospects for Brazil's sovereign debt after five years of the `muddling-through' strategy. We first examine Brazilian debt from a historical perspective and then consider the experiences of the 1970s. Between 1978 and 1982, Brazil's current account shifted by $13 billion towards deficits. This shift can be explained, for the most part, by the slowdown in exports, increased real interest rates and high real oil prices. Our estimates suggest that between 1978 and 1982, $35 billion (75% of Brazil's total net debt accumulation) can be accounted for by the adverse external environment. We then review the period 1982-7 and highlight four factors which contributed to the failure of the muddling-through strategy: higher than expected real interest rates, the failure of commodity prices to rise from their low 1982 levels, the unexpected difficulties due to the transfer problem, and the diminishing enthusiasm of creditors for the strategy. We conclude by discussing policies which, we argue, would better serve the long-term interests of Brazil and its creditors. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics |
| 关键词 | Brazil Crowding-out Muddling-through Sovereign debt crisis Transfer problem |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp243 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/529399 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Rudiger Dornbusch,Eliana Cardoso. DP243 Brazilian Debt: A Requiem for Muddling Through. 1988. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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