| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP470 |
| DP470 Political Cycles in OECD Economies | |
| Alberto Alesina; Nouriel Roubini | |
| 发表日期 | 1990-10-01 |
| 出版年 | 1990 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This paper studies whether the dynamic behaviour of GNP growth, unemployment and inflation is systematically affected by the timing of elections and changes of government. The sample includes the last three decades in 18 OECD economies. We test explicitly the implications of several models of political cycles, both of the `opportunistic' and of the `partisan' type. Also, we confront the implications of recent `rational' models with more traditional approaches. Our results can be summarized as follows: (a) the `political business cycle' hypothesis, as formulated in Nordhaus (1975) on output and unemployment, is generally rejected by the data; with the exception of Japan, we also reject the extension of the `political business cycle' model, with endogenous timing of elections; (b) inflation tends to increase immediately after elections, perhaps as a result of pre- electoral expansionary monetary and fiscal policies; (c) we find evidence of temporary partisan differences in output and unemployment and of long-run partisan differences in the inflation rate as implied by the `rational partisan theory' (Alesina, 1987); (d) we find virtually no evidence of permanent partisan differences in output and unemployment. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics |
| 关键词 | Elections inflation Oecd Output Political business cycles |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp470 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/529625 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Alberto Alesina,Nouriel Roubini. DP470 Political Cycles in OECD Economies. 1990. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。
