| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP485 |
| DP485 Exchange Rate Dynamics and Currency Unification: The Ostmark-DM Rate | |
| Michael Burda; Stefan Gerlach | |
| 发表日期 | 1990-12-01 |
| 出版年 | 1990 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This paper studies the exchange rate between the East and West German mark in the period before German monetary union. We show that standard exchange rate theory contains strong predictions about the dynamics of the exchange rate under these circumstances, and we use state-space methods to estimate key parameters of the model. A random-walk model gives a good fit to the first half of the data, during which it was unclear that monetary union would occur. In the second half, when union was expected, the Ostmark rate behaves as a weighted average of fundamentals and the expected terminal exchange rate. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics |
| 关键词 | Deutschmark Kalman filtering Monetary union Ostmark |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp485 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/529640 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Michael Burda,Stefan Gerlach. DP485 Exchange Rate Dynamics and Currency Unification: The Ostmark-DM Rate. 1990. |
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