| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP502 |
| DP502 The European Monetary System: Achievements and Survival | |
| Patrick Minford; Andrew Hughes Hallett; Anupam Rastogi | |
| 发表日期 | 1991 |
| 出版年 | 1991 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | The EMS's robustness in the face of stochastic shocks is studied, using the Liverpool World Model and the optimal strategy algorithm of Brandsma and Hughes Hallett. The EMS began life in 1979 with a system design permitting regular parity changes; we find this design to be relatively unstable, even without monetary policy reaction, and potentially highly unstable under Nash non-cooperative monetary policy, essentially because EMS countries that should be followers make over-active use of monetary policy and parity changes. Tough exchange controls (clearly some temporary controls are a practical requirement for EMS survival in times of parity crisis) do not reduce instability, indeed can make it worse. However, monetary cooperation between EMS member removes much of the instability for EMS members; limiting parity change on its own does not help. Floating with non-cooperative monetary policy remains more stable than any EMS regime, for both the EMS and non-EMS groups of countries. The paper offers an explanation, based on institutional survival and evolution, of the changes in the EMS's mode of operation since 1979. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics |
| 关键词 | European monetary system Floating exchange rates Regime shifts Stability |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp502 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/529658 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Patrick Minford,Andrew Hughes Hallett,Anupam Rastogi. DP502 The European Monetary System: Achievements and Survival. 1991. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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