全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): DP526 The Measurement of Policy Effects in a Non-Causal Model: An Application to Economic Policy in the UK, 1974-79

G2TT

来源类型	Discussion paper
规范类型	论文
来源ID	DP526
	DP526 The Measurement of Policy Effects in a Non-Causal Model: An Application to Economic Policy in the UK, 1974-79
	Michael Artis; Yue Ma; Robin Bladen-Hovell
发表日期	1991-04-01
出版年	1991
语种	英语
摘要	There is a well-established methodology for measuring the effects of economic policy in a model that is `causal' or backward-looking. In this paper a complementary methodology is described for the case in which the model is `non-causal' or forward-looking. The methodology is then applied to an econometric model of the British economy, the National Institute model version 11; in this version expectational variables appear in several key equations (both for quantities and for prices) and the model may be solved in forward-looking or in backward-looking mode. The policy period for which the exercise is conducted is 1974-9, the term of office of the last Labour administrations (under the premierships of Wilson and Callaghan), and a period of considerable economic stress. The results obtained for the effects of policy when the model is solved in forward-looking mode are compared with those obtained when expectations are assumed to be formed adaptively.
主题	International Macroeconomics
关键词	Economic policy Expectations Simulation
URL	https://cepr.org/publications/dp526
来源智库	Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/529687
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Michael Artis,Yue Ma,Robin Bladen-Hovell. DP526 The Measurement of Policy Effects in a Non-Causal Model: An Application to Economic Policy in the UK, 1974-79. 1991.