| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP618 |
| DP618 From EMS to EMU | |
| Michele Fratianni; Jurgen von Hagen; Christopher Waller | |
| 发表日期 | 1992-01-04 |
| 出版年 | 1992 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This paper discusses the strategic choices involved in the transformation of the current EMS into a European Monetary Union. Alternative strategy proposals are evaluated under the criteria of credibility, flexibility, effective institution-building and mitigation of end games. The Delors strategy mistakes exchange rate fixity for credibility, resulting in an overly rigid and unstable strategy. The Hard Ecu provides flexibility, but is unlikely to achieve EMU. We propose a softened EMS - the Two-Tier EMS - as an alternative that meets the four criteria in a more satisfactory way. The second part develops a principal-agent model of the central bank, which embodies an explanation of political business cycles and the credibility problem. We use this model to show that the current draft of the statutes of the European Central Bank does not solve the dilemma of discretion and credibility in a satisfactory way. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics |
| 关键词 | Central bank constitution Emi Monetary and exchange rate regimes |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp618 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/529768 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Michele Fratianni,Jurgen von Hagen,Christopher Waller. DP618 From EMS to EMU. 1992. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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