| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP790 |
| DP790 The Determinants of Realignment Expectations Under the EMS - Some Empirical Regularities | |
| Alberto Giovannini; Zhaohui Chen | |
| 发表日期 | 1993-07-31 |
| 出版年 | 1993 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | The stability of the EMS depends crucially on the realignment expectations of market participants. In this paper we discuss how to measure such expectations and how to relate them to economic fundamentals, central bank reputation, and the institutional arrangements of the EMS. We find the following empirical regularities for FF/DM and IL/DM exchange rates: (1) expected devaluations are positively related to the current exchange rate deviation from the central parity; (2) expected devaluations are negatively related to the length of time since last realignment in the short and medium run; (3) the Basle-Nyborg agreements seem to have a stabilizing effect for both currencies examined, albeit through different channels; (4) large revaluation expectations occur immediately after devaluations. (1) and (4) are not inconsistent with the hypothesis of `over-speculation' or market inefficiency. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics |
| 关键词 | Basle-nyborg agreements Ems Exchange rates Realignment |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp790 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/529953 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Alberto Giovannini,Zhaohui Chen. DP790 The Determinants of Realignment Expectations Under the EMS - Some Empirical Regularities. 1993. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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