| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP820 |
| DP820 Galton's Fallacy and Tests of the Convergence Hypothesis | |
| Danny Quah | |
| 发表日期 | 1993-07-31 |
| 出版年 | 1993 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Recent tests for the convergence hypothesis derive from regressing average growth rates on initial levels: a negative initial level coefficient is interpreted as convergence. These tests turn out to be plagued by Francis Galton's classical fallacy of regression towards the mean. Using a dynamic version of Galton's fallacy, I establish that coefficients of arbitrary signs in such regressions are consistent with an unchanging cross-section distribution of incomes. Alternative, more direct empirics used here show a tendency for divergence, rather than convergence, of cross-country incomes. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics |
| 关键词 | Convergence Cross-country growth Galton's fallacy Regression towards the mean Stochastic kernel Transition matrix |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp820 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/529969 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Danny Quah. DP820 Galton's Fallacy and Tests of the Convergence Hypothesis. 1993. |
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