| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP913 |
| DP913 Gender, Poverty and the Intra-household Distribution of Resources | |
| Ronald Findlay; Robert E. Wright | |
| 发表日期 | 1994-02-05 |
| 出版年 | 1994 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We set out a reference chronology for annual UK inflation, identifying nine complete cycles between 1958 and 1990. Inflation over this period is asymmetric, falling more quickly than it rises. Leading indicators are also proposed, with composite shorter and longer leading indicators constructed. These exhibit leads at peaks which are generally longer than at troughs. An evaluation of the composite series is also conducted to indicate how they might perform in real time. Overall, they give clear prior turning point information with relatively few `false signals'. Nevertheless, we find that inflation troughs are more difficult to predict than peaks. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics |
| 关键词 | Bayesian Cycles Forecasting inflation Leading indicators |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp913 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/530037 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Ronald Findlay,Robert E. Wright. DP913 Gender, Poverty and the Intra-household Distribution of Resources. 1994. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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