| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP921 |
| DP921 Unemployment and Increasing Returns to Human Capital | |
| Gilles Saint-Paul | |
| 发表日期 | 1994-02-28 |
| 出版年 | 1994 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Typical analyses of trends and cycles take as given some (one) observable economic variable in whose time path a researcher wishes to find trend and cycle movements. But individual sectors and regions in aggregate economies move neither perfectly with nor independently of each other -- why is it useful to study their aggregate? Using a model for non-stationary, dynamically evolving distributions, this paper provides evidence that in the United States, regional movements that preserve their aggregate time path nevertheless have important, predictive comovements with aggregate GNP. Such predictive content cannot be understood in traditional macro models that seek the source for business cycles in aggregate productivity or monetary shocks. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics |
| 关键词 | Business cycle Distribution dynamics Economic fluctuation Geographical region Growth Large cross-section |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp921 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/530056 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Gilles Saint-Paul. DP921 Unemployment and Increasing Returns to Human Capital. 1994. |
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