G2TT
来源类型Discussion paper
规范类型论文
来源IDDP1400
DP1400 Are Capital Flows Consistent with the Neoclassical Growth Model? Evidence from a Cross-section of Developing Countries
Philippe Martin; Stefano Manzocchi
发表日期1996-05-31
出版年1996
语种英语
摘要We examine whether credit contributes to business cycle fluctuations by directly affecting consumption rather than through the now well-understood investment channel. Examining UK data we argue that consumers face a rising interest rate schedule whereby additional borrowing leads to higher interest rates. At a certain level of debt this schedule may become vertical and consumers face a credit ceiling. Using this assumption we find consumption growth depends on the interest rate, the borrowing wedge, and the debt-income ratio, and that we can potentially account for the failings of the rational expectations permanent income hypothesis (REPIH). Risk aversion and the interest rate schedule interact such that agents choose not to hold much debt, however, and so consumers are not much affected by ?credit crunches?, although the more efficient the capital market, the bigger the impact. Calibrating our model and performing simulations suggests the sharp increases in UK consumption in the late 1980s were more likely due to income revisions than financial deregulation per se.
主题International Macroeconomics
关键词Consumption Credit constraint Credit crunch Financial deregulation Precautionary saving
URLhttps://cepr.org/publications/dp1400
来源智库Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/530543
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Philippe Martin,Stefano Manzocchi. DP1400 Are Capital Flows Consistent with the Neoclassical Growth Model? Evidence from a Cross-section of Developing Countries. 1996.
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