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来源类型 | Discussion paper |
规范类型 | 论文 |
来源ID | DP1400 |
DP1400 Are Capital Flows Consistent with the Neoclassical Growth Model? Evidence from a Cross-section of Developing Countries | |
Philippe Martin; Stefano Manzocchi | |
发表日期 | 1996-05-31 |
出版年 | 1996 |
语种 | 英语 |
摘要 | We examine whether credit contributes to business cycle fluctuations by directly affecting consumption rather than through the now well-understood investment channel. Examining UK data we argue that consumers face a rising interest rate schedule whereby additional borrowing leads to higher interest rates. At a certain level of debt this schedule may become vertical and consumers face a credit ceiling. Using this assumption we find consumption growth depends on the interest rate, the borrowing wedge, and the debt-income ratio, and that we can potentially account for the failings of the rational expectations permanent income hypothesis (REPIH). Risk aversion and the interest rate schedule interact such that agents choose not to hold much debt, however, and so consumers are not much affected by ?credit crunches?, although the more efficient the capital market, the bigger the impact. Calibrating our model and performing simulations suggests the sharp increases in UK consumption in the late 1980s were more likely due to income revisions than financial deregulation per se. |
主题 | International Macroeconomics |
关键词 | Consumption Credit constraint Credit crunch Financial deregulation Precautionary saving |
URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp1400 |
来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/530543 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Philippe Martin,Stefano Manzocchi. DP1400 Are Capital Flows Consistent with the Neoclassical Growth Model? Evidence from a Cross-section of Developing Countries. 1996. |
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