全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): DP1436 Common Agency and Coordination: General Theory and Application to Tax Policy

G2TT

来源类型	Discussion paper
规范类型	论文
来源ID	DP1436
	DP1436 Common Agency and Coordination: General Theory and Application to Tax Policy
	Avinash K Dixit; Elhanan Helpman; Gene Grossman
发表日期	1996-07-31
出版年	1996
语种	英语
摘要	This paper considers the ultimate causes of post-war UK business cycles. Using an extended stochastic growth model we construct estimates of a productivity and preference shock both of which are highly persistent, volatile and potentially capable of explaining UK business cycles. We find the productivity term is the dominant explanation of UK output fluctuations, but our estimated preference shift is crucial in understanding employment movements. We use a variety of Granger causality tests to establish whether these productivity and preference terms are predictable and so can be potentially considered as the ultimate cause of UK business cycles, or whether they are themselves Granger caused by other variables. We find our estimated productivity term is not predicted by any demand-side variable, including various fiscal and monetary policy instruments, but is, to a limited extent, predicted by oil prices and the share of taxes in GDP. This suggests that our ?productivity? shock may also reflect other supply-side influences. In contrast, we find our ?preference? shift is predicted to a substantial extent by real variables, such as the terms of trade and oil prices, and nominal variables, such as the money supply and the price level. The implications of these findings for competing theories of the business cycle and for the monetary transmission mechanism are discussed.
主题	International Macroeconomics
关键词	Business cycles Money Preference shocks Productivity shocks Taxes Terms of trade
URL	https://cepr.org/publications/dp1436
来源智库	Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/530579
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Avinash K Dixit,Elhanan Helpman,Gene Grossman. DP1436 Common Agency and Coordination: General Theory and Application to Tax Policy. 1996.