| 来源类型 | Discussion paper
|
| 规范类型 | 论文
|
| 来源ID | DP1558
|
| DP1558 EMU: Countries or Regions? Lessons from the EMS Experience |
| Antonio Fatas
|
| 发表日期 | 1997-01-31
|
| 出版年 | 1997
|
| 语种 | 英语
|
| 摘要 | When shock therapy is politically infeasible, will gradualism work? Mussa (1986) conjectured, in the context of a neoclassical model of adjustment, that the answer was ?yes?. This paper takes up the Mussa conjecture by: (i) building a political-economy model in which it makes sense; (ii) stating the relevant political-economy constraint rigorously; and (iii) analysing the question in the context of Mussa?s model. It turns out that, in general, there is no a priori presumption that gradualism will work when shock therapy does not, because it has conflicting effects in a dynamic general equilibrium. The paper goes on to add further structure to the problem in the form of: (i) a simple parameterization of the policy choice; and (ii) a linearization of the model around a steady state. It is then possible to confirm the Mussa conjecture in a ?local? sense. Extensive numerical simulations of the non-linear model under a wide variety of parameter configurations confirm that the results are robust even for large reforms and even when the economy begins far away from its eventual steady state. |
| 关键词 | Gradualism
Policy reform
Structural adjustment
|
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp1558
|
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
|
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物
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| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/530700
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推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714 |
Antonio Fatas. DP1558 EMU: Countries or Regions? Lessons from the EMS Experience. 1997.
|
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