G2TT
来源类型Discussion paper
规范类型论文
来源IDDP1804
DP1804 A Red Letter Day?
Rudiger Dornbusch; Francesco Giavazzi; Carlo A. Favero
发表日期1998-03-09
出版年1998
语种英语
摘要The aim of this paper is to isolate and measure the respective importance of political and economic aspects in two critical episodes of the French inter-war period: the stabilization process of the mid-1920s and the reluctance to abandon the gold standard during the 1930s. We do this by separating expectations of taxation and of devaluation that are implicitly included in the prices of various categories of French bonds. On the 1924?6 crisis, we show first that there was no expectation of government default; second that a substantial part of the high level of interest rates in 1925 can be explained by expectations of a capital levy or other taxation devices; third that hyperinflation was not expected, even at the moment of maximum price rise, since implied five-year interest rates were lower than 20% and since the expected value of the franc was not as low as the spot value. For the 1930s, we show that expectations of a depreciation of the franc explain the rise in interest rates, so that no independent effect of fiscal policy was expected.
主题International Macroeconomics
关键词Capital levy Cartel des gauches Consols Conversion Devaluation Exchange rate guarantee Exchange rates Expectations France Interest rates
URLhttps://cepr.org/publications/dp1804
来源智库Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/530945
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Rudiger Dornbusch,Francesco Giavazzi,Carlo A. Favero. DP1804 A Red Letter Day?. 1998.
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