| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP1804 |
| DP1804 A Red Letter Day? | |
| Rudiger Dornbusch; Francesco Giavazzi; Carlo A. Favero | |
| 发表日期 | 1998-03-09 |
| 出版年 | 1998 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | The aim of this paper is to isolate and measure the respective importance of political and economic aspects in two critical episodes of the French inter-war period: the stabilization process of the mid-1920s and the reluctance to abandon the gold standard during the 1930s. We do this by separating expectations of taxation and of devaluation that are implicitly included in the prices of various categories of French bonds. On the 1924?6 crisis, we show first that there was no expectation of government default; second that a substantial part of the high level of interest rates in 1925 can be explained by expectations of a capital levy or other taxation devices; third that hyperinflation was not expected, even at the moment of maximum price rise, since implied five-year interest rates were lower than 20% and since the expected value of the franc was not as low as the spot value. For the 1930s, we show that expectations of a depreciation of the franc explain the rise in interest rates, so that no independent effect of fiscal policy was expected. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics |
| 关键词 | Capital levy Cartel des gauches Consols Conversion Devaluation Exchange rate guarantee Exchange rates Expectations France Interest rates |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp1804 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/530945 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Rudiger Dornbusch,Francesco Giavazzi,Carlo A. Favero. DP1804 A Red Letter Day?. 1998. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。
