| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP1976 |
| DP1976 Data-Snooping, Technical Trading Rule Performance and the Bootstrap | |
| Halbert White; Henry Allan Timmermann; Ryan Sullivan | |
| 发表日期 | 1998-09-30 |
| 出版年 | 1998 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Currency crises tend to be regional; they affect countries in geographic proximity. This suggests that patterns of international trade are important in understanding how currency crises spread, above and beyond any macroeconomic phenomena. We provide empirical support for this hypothesis. Using data for five different currency crises (in 1971, 1973, 1992, 1994 and 1997) we show that currency crises affect clusters of countries tied together by international trade. By way of contrast, macroeconomic and financial influences are not closely associated with the cross-country incidence of speculative attacks. We also show that trade linkages help explain cross-country correlations in exchange market pressure during crisis episodes, even after controlling for macroeconomic factors. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics |
| 关键词 | Empirical Exchange rates Financial International Macroeconomic Reserve Speculative |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp1976 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/531106 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Halbert White,Henry Allan Timmermann,Ryan Sullivan. DP1976 Data-Snooping, Technical Trading Rule Performance and the Bootstrap. 1998. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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