| 来源类型 | Discussion paper
|
| 规范类型 | 论文
|
| 来源ID | DP2914
|
| DP2914 Ex Ante Costs of Violating Absolute Priority in Bankruptcy |
| Lucian Arye Bebchuk
|
| 发表日期 | 2001-08-08
|
| 出版年 | 2001
|
| 语种 | 英语
|
| 摘要 | We derive a comprehensive one-year ahead forecasting model of US per capita GDP for 1955-2000, collectively examining variables usually considered singly, e.g. interest rates, credit conditions, the stock market, oil prices and the yield gap, of which all, except the last, are found to matter. The credit conditions index is measured in the Federal Reserve?s Survey of Senior Loan Officers and its importance is consistent with a ?financial accelerator? view. The balance of payments, exchange rate and fiscal policy also play a role. We address the Lucas critique, investigating consequences of monetary policy regime shifts in 1980, and fiscal policy regime shifts at the end of the 1980?s. The model forecasts in 2001 the most severe growth reversal since 1974. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics
|
| 关键词 | Macroeconomic forecasts
Monetary policy transmission
The credit channel
The financial accelerator
Lucas critique
The us recession
Oil prices
|
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp2914
|
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
|
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物
|
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/531958
|
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714 |
Lucian Arye Bebchuk. DP2914 Ex Ante Costs of Violating Absolute Priority in Bankruptcy. 2001.
|
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