| 来源类型 | Discussion paper
|
| 规范类型 | 论文
|
| 来源ID | DP2954
|
| DP2954 A Monetary Union in Motion: the European Experience |
| Richard Portes
|
| 发表日期 | 2001-09-01
|
| 出版年 | 2001
|
| 语种 | 英语
|
| 摘要 | This Paper explores the implications of different strategies for financing the fiscal costs of twin crises in inflation and depreciation rates. We use a first-generation type model of speculative attacks which has four key features: (i) the crisis is triggered by prospective deficits: (ii) there exists outstanding non-indexed government debt issued prior to the crises; (iii) a portion of the governments liabilities are not indexed to inflation; and (iv) there are nontradable goods and costs of distributing tradable goods, so that purchasing power parity does not hold. We show that the model can account for the high rates of devaluation and moderate rates of inflation often observed in the wake of currency crises. We use our model and the data to interpret the recent currency crises in Mexico and Korea. Our analysis suggests that the Mexican government is likely to pay for the bulk of the fiscal costs of its crisis through seignorage revenues. In contrast, the Korean government is likely to rely more on a combination of implicit and explicit fiscal reforms. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics
|
| 关键词 | Currency crisis
Banking crisis
Speculative attacks
Seignorage
Fiscal reform
Bailouts
|
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp2954
|
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
|
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物
|
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/531977
|
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714 |
Richard Portes. DP2954 A Monetary Union in Motion: the European Experience. 2001.
|
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