| 来源类型 | Discussion paper
|
| 规范类型 | 论文
|
| 来源ID | DP3057
|
| DP3057 News Related to Future GDP Growth as a Risk Factor in Equity Returns |
| Maria Vassalou
|
| 发表日期 | 2001-11-08
|
| 出版年 | 2001
|
| 语种 | 英语
|
| 摘要 | The Paper studies the design of efficient disinflation programmes in open economies using the sacrifice ratio; that is, the cumulative additional un-employment or cumulative lost output required to achieve a 1% sustained reduction in the rate of inflation, as the metric of efficiency. The ?new Keynesian? Phillips curve first proposed by Calvo has a zero sacrifice ratio: costless disinflation is possible, because the inflation process is purely forward-looking. There is inertia or rigidity in the price level but not in the rate of inflation. More interesting inflation kernels for which current inflation is partly forward-looking and partly backward-looking have a positive sacrifice ratio. Real exchange rate appreciation early in the disinflation process may raise the sacrifice ratio relative to a policy that keeps the real exchange rate constant. The sacrifice ratio is lower under gradualism than under ?cold turkey?. Effficient disinflation policies may, however, be time-inconsistent and therefore not credible. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics
|
| 关键词 | Sacrifice ratio
Disinflation
New keynesian phillips curve
|
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp3057
|
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
|
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物
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| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/532086
|
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714 |
Maria Vassalou. DP3057 News Related to Future GDP Growth as a Risk Factor in Equity Returns. 2001.
|
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