| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP3060 |
| DP3060 Forecast Evaluation with Shared Data Sets | |
| Halbert White; Henry Allan Timmermann; Ryan Sullivan | |
| 发表日期 | 2001-11-11 |
| 出版年 | 2001 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Investor confidence in reliable property rights and stable, market-oriented policies are a necessary condition for financial integration and the development of emerging stock markets. Announced market-oriented policies may be reversed, however, and are initially not fully credible. We argue that sustained privatization and liberalization programmes represent a major test of political commitment to safer private property rights. We investigate whether successful privatization has a significant effect on emerging stock market development through the resolution of policy risk, i.e. the risk of ex post policy changes with redistributive impact on investment returns. The evidence from our panel study suggests that progress in privatization gradually leads to increased confidence. Moreover, increased confidence has a strong effect on local market development and is a significant determinant of excess returns. We conclude that financial liberalization and the resolution of policy risk resulting from successful privatization has been an important source for the broadening and deepening of emerging stock markets. |
| 主题 | Financial Economics |
| 关键词 | Financial integration Liberalization Stock market development Political risk Privatization Emerging market |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp3060 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/532092 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Halbert White,Henry Allan Timmermann,Ryan Sullivan. DP3060 Forecast Evaluation with Shared Data Sets. 2001. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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