| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP3108 |
| DP3108 EuroCOIN: A Real Time Coincident Indicator of the Euro Area Business Cycle | |
| Marco Lippi; Lucrezia Reichlin; Marc Hallin; Mario Forni; Filippo Altissimo; Riccardo Cristadoro; Giovanni Veronese; Antonio Bassanetti | |
| 发表日期 | 2001-12-12 |
| 出版年 | 2001 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This Paper seeks to trace the impact of monetary arrangements on trade integration and business cycle correlation, focusing on Europe in the late 19th century period as a guide for modern debates. For this purpose, we first estimate a gravity model and show that monetary arrangements were associated with substantially higher trade. The Austro-Hungarian dual monarchy, by many aspects a forerunner of Euroland, improved trade between member states by a factor of 3. Other arrangements, such as the gold standard and the Scandinavian union also impacted trade favourably. To explain this, we argue that monetary coordination, by fostering the correlation of business cycles compensate the adverse effect that the current account constraint has on trade integration. This is found to vastly compensate the negative consequences that trade integration might have on the symmetry of shocks, of which this Paper finds strong evidence, in contrast with recent empirical work. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics |
| 关键词 | Gravity equations Optimum currency area Endogeneity Trade and business cycles correlation Europe Monetary unions 19th century |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp3108 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/532135 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Marco Lippi,Lucrezia Reichlin,Marc Hallin,et al. DP3108 EuroCOIN: A Real Time Coincident Indicator of the Euro Area Business Cycle. 2001. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。
