| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP3142 |
| DP3142 The Solow Productivity Paradox in Historical Perspective | |
| Nicholas Crafts | |
| 发表日期 | 2002 |
| 出版年 | 2002 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This Paper estimates the effect of sovereign debt renegotiation on international trade. Sovereign default may be associated with a subsequent decline in international trade either because creditors want to deter default by debtors, or because trade finance dries up after default. To estimate the effect, I use an empirical gravity model of bilateral trade and a large panel data set covering fifty years and over 200 trading partners. The model controls for a host of factors that influence bilateral trade flows, including the incidence of IMF programs. Using the dates of sovereign debt renegotiations conducted through the Paris Club as a proxy measure for sovereign default, I find that renegotiation is associated with an economically and statistically significant decline in bilateral trade between a debtor and its creditors. The decline in bilateral trade is approximately eight % a year and persists for around fifteen years. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics ; International Trade and Regional Economics |
| 关键词 | Empirical Sovereign Default Bilateral Panel Gravity Paris Club Rescheduling |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp3142 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/532162 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Nicholas Crafts. DP3142 The Solow Productivity Paradox in Historical Perspective. 2002. |
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