全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): DP3299 Back to Kyoto? US Participation and the Linkage Between R&D and Climate Cooperation

G2TT

来源类型	Discussion paper
规范类型	论文
来源ID	DP3299
	DP3299 Back to Kyoto? US Participation and the Linkage Between R&D and Climate Cooperation
	Carlo Carraro; Barbara Buchner; Igor Cersosimo; Carmen Marchiori
发表日期	2002-04-20
出版年	2002
语种	英语
摘要	In this Paper we evaluate the relative performance of linear, non-linear and time-varying models for about 500 macroeconomic variables for the countries in the Euro area, using a real-time forecasting methodology. It turns out that linear models work well for about 35% of the series under analysis, time-varying models for another 35% and non-linear models for the remaining 30% of the series. The gains in forecasting accuracy from the choice of the best model can be substantial, in particular for longer forecast horizons. These results emerge from a detailed disaggregated analysis, while they are hidden when an average loss function is used. To explore in more detail the issue of parameter instability, we then apply a battery of tests, detecting non-constancy in about 20-30% of the time series. For these variables the forecasting performance of the time-varying and non-linear models further improves, with larger gains for a larger fraction of the series. Finally, we evaluate whether non-linear models perform better for three key macroeconomic variables: industrial production, inflation and unemployment. It turns out that this is often the case. Hence, overall, our results indicate that there is a substantial amount of instability and non-linearity in the EMU, and suggest that it can be worth going beyond linear models for several EMU macroeconomic variables.
主题	International Macroeconomics
关键词	Instability Non-linearity Time-varying models Non-linear models European monetary union
URL	https://cepr.org/publications/dp3299
来源智库	Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/532326
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Carlo Carraro,Barbara Buchner,Igor Cersosimo,et al. DP3299 Back to Kyoto? US Participation and the Linkage Between R&D and Climate Cooperation. 2002.