| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP3394 |
| DP3394 From Malthus to Ohlin: Trade, Growth and Distribution Since 1500 | |
| Jeffrey G. Williamson; Kevin O'Rourke | |
| 发表日期 | 2002-05-20 |
| 出版年 | 2002 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We consider a dynamic stochastic model of currency attacks, characterised by imperfect information about the fundamental. Agents, who imperfectly know the state of the economy, not only decide whether to attack the peg, but also formulate expectations concerning the probability of future devaluation. The subjective devaluation probabilities influence the inflation expectations, which, in their turn, affects the second period wage level and hence, unemployment. In this way, first period expectations affect the second period fundamental and hence the policymaker?s ability to resist to an attack. We show that equilibrium expectations may be either ?optimistic? or ?pessimistic?. Optimistic (pessimistic) expectations involve a currency attack equilibrium characterised by a low (high) probability of devaluation. This result is due to the fact that agents decide upon next period wage having observed whether the current period currency attack has been successful or not. This publicly available information is sufficient to allow for a coordination effect among agents. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics |
| 关键词 | Currency attacks Fixed exchange rate Multiple equilibria Asymmetric information Global games |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp3394 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/532416 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Jeffrey G. Williamson,Kevin O'Rourke. DP3394 From Malthus to Ohlin: Trade, Growth and Distribution Since 1500. 2002. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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