| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP3529 |
| DP3529 Forecasting EMU Macroeconomic Variables | |
| Massimiliano Marcellino | |
| 发表日期 | 2002-10-20 |
| 出版年 | 2002 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This Paper studies a model where individuals have imperfect self-knowledge and learning is costly. It shows that the endogenous decision to collect information before taking an action creates a systematic and testable bias in the aggregate behaviour of agents in the economy. More precisely, individuals distort the information acquisition procedure so as to favour the possibility of undertaking the action that generates the highest benefits in some states, even if it also generates the biggest losses in some others. The Paper thus explains within a rational framework why 80% of individuals may perceive themselves as being brighter, better drivers and more able entrepreneurs than their average peer. Applications to biases in career choices and judicial decisions are discussed. |
| 主题 | Industrial Organization ; Public Economics |
| 关键词 | Self-perception Bias in judgement Decision-making |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp3529 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/532571 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Massimiliano Marcellino. DP3529 Forecasting EMU Macroeconomic Variables. 2002. |
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