| 来源类型 | Discussion paper
|
| 规范类型 | 论文
|
| 来源ID | DP3647
|
| DP3647 Outsourcing Versus FDI in Industry Equilibrium |
| Elhanan Helpman; Gene Grossman
|
| 发表日期 | 2002-11-20
|
| 出版年 | 2002
|
| 语种 | 英语
|
| 摘要 | Forecasting models for output are presented to throw light on monetary transmission. Recent research finds multistep forecasting superior to recursive forecasting from a VAR model when structural breaks are present; there are important political and policy regime breaks in South Africa. The equilibrium correction models have a four-quarter ahead forecast horizon, appropriate for measuring interest rate effects. A stochastic trend measures underlying shifts in productivity and other supply side trends. The inclusion of important monetary policy regime shifts, which altered the output response to interest rates, and the control for other structural changes (e.g. trade liberalization), address the Lucas critique in forecasting output growth. There are important and persistent effects of high real interest rates, which significantly constrained growth in the 1990s, and significant potential growth benefits from fiscal discipline. South African growth appears to have become more responsive to the exchange rate with increasing trade openness in the 1990s. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics
|
| 关键词 | Monetary policy transmission
Multi-step forecasting
Growth
Structural breaks
|
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp3647
|
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
|
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物
|
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/532655
|
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714 |
Elhanan Helpman,Gene Grossman. DP3647 Outsourcing Versus FDI in Industry Equilibrium. 2002.
|
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