全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): DP3724 Employment Consequences of Restrictive Permanent Contracts: Evidence from Spanish Labour Market Reforms

G2TT

来源类型	Discussion paper
规范类型	论文
来源ID	DP3724
	DP3724 Employment Consequences of Restrictive Permanent Contracts: Evidence from Spanish Labour Market Reforms
	Juan Francisco Jimeno; Adriana D. Kugler; Virginia Hernanz
发表日期	2003-01-23
出版年	2003
语种	英语
摘要	It is widely known that significant in-sample evidence of predictability does not guarantee significant out-of-sample predictability. This is often interpreted as an indication that in-sample evidence is likely to be spurious and should be discounted. In this Paper we question this conventional wisdom. Our analysis shows that neither data mining nor parameter instability is a plausible explanation of the observed tendency of in-sample tests to reject the no predictability null more often than out-of-sample tests. We provide an alternative explanation based on the higher power of in-sample tests of predictability. We conclude that results of in-sample tests of predictability will typically be more credible than results of out-of-sample tests.
主题	International Macroeconomics
关键词	Data mining Parameter instability Predictability test Reliability of inference
URL	https://cepr.org/publications/dp3724
来源智库	Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/532699
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Juan Francisco Jimeno,Adriana D. Kugler,Virginia Hernanz. DP3724 Employment Consequences of Restrictive Permanent Contracts: Evidence from Spanish Labour Market Reforms. 2003.