| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP3704 |
| DP3704 Temporary Shocks and Unavoidable Transitions to a High-Unemployment Regime | |
| Wouter Den Haan | |
| 发表日期 | 2003-01-28 |
| 出版年 | 2003 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This Paper develops a model with multiple steady states (low tax and low unemployment versus high tax and high unemployment) in which equilibrium selection is not conditioned on a sunspot variable. Instead, large temporary shocks initiate unavoidable transitions from one steady state to another. Tax policies have huge effects in some cases. In particular, it is possible that the transition to the high-unemployment steady state after a negative shock can be avoided if the government borrows to finance unemployment benefits, and in some cases it is even possible that a credible permanent tax cut would force the economy out of the high-unemployment steady state. The model is used to explain the high European unemployment rates in the 80?s and 90?s. The Paper argues that the increase in unemployment during the 70?s played a key role because it led to an increase in the obligation to pay unemployment benefits. The implied tax burden was so big that the transition to the high-unemployment regime was the unique equilibrium outcome. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics |
| 关键词 | Multiple equilibria Sunspots Matching model Unemployment benefits Tax burden Fiscal policy |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp3704 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/532728 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Wouter Den Haan. DP3704 Temporary Shocks and Unavoidable Transitions to a High-Unemployment Regime. 2003. |
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