| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP3785 |
| DP3785 Learning to Forget? Contagion and Political Risk in Brazil | |
| Marcus Miller; Kannika Thampanishvong | |
| 发表日期 | 2003-02-23 |
| 出版年 | 2003 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We examine whether Brazilian sovereign spreads of over 20% in 2002 could be due to contagion from Argentina or to domestic politics, or both. Treating unilateral debt restructuring as a policy variable gives rise to the possibility of self-fulfilling crisis, which can be triggered by contagion. We explore an alternative political-economy explanation of panic in financial markets inspired by Alesina (1987), which stresses exaggerated market fears of an untried Left-wing candidate. To account for the fall of sovereign spreads since the election, we employ a model of Bayesian learning and analyse the effects of contagion and IMF commitments. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics |
| 关键词 | Sovereign spreads Political risk Bayesian learning Time-consistency |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp3785 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/532784 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Marcus Miller,Kannika Thampanishvong. DP3785 Learning to Forget? Contagion and Political Risk in Brazil. 2003. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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