全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): DP4161 How Do Legal Differences and Learning Affect Financial Contracts?

G2TT

来源类型	Discussion paper
规范类型	论文
来源ID	DP4161
	DP4161 How Do Legal Differences and Learning Affect Financial Contracts?
	Steven Kaplan; Per Strömberg; Frederic Martel
发表日期	2003-12-23
出版年	2003
语种	英语
摘要	Empirical research on the gravity model of international trade in the wake of Rose (2000) affirms that currency union formation doubles or triples trade. Currency unions could, however, also be established precisely because trade among their members was already high. In OLS estimation, this would cause endogeneity bias. The present Paper employs both fixed-effects and binary choice methods to trace endogeneity in the formation of historical currency arrangements. Studying the formation of currency blocs in the 1930s, we find strong evidence of endogeneity. We work with country-group fixed effects and find that already in the 1920s, trade within the later currency blocs was up to three times higher than average. The formal establishment of these blocs had only insignificant or even negative effects on the coefficients. We also employ a probit approach to predict membership in these later arrangements on the basis of data from the 1920s. Results are remarkably robust and again indicate strong self-selection bias. Evaluated against the control groups, treatment effects in the 1930s were mostly absent. Even the post-war currency arrangements are visible in the inter-war data. In line with the theory of optimum currency areas, our results caution against optimism over trade creation by currency unions.
主题	International Macroeconomics
关键词	Currency blocs Gravity model Endogeneity Treatment effects
URL	https://cepr.org/publications/dp4161
来源智库	Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/533132
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Steven Kaplan,Per Strömberg,Frederic Martel. DP4161 How Do Legal Differences and Learning Affect Financial Contracts?. 2003.