G2TT
来源类型Discussion paper
规范类型论文
来源IDDP4179
DP4179 Speed and Quality of Collective Decision-Making, I: Imperfect Information Processing
Hans Peter Grüner; Elisabeth Schulte
发表日期2004-02-23
出版年2004
语种英语
摘要The empirical performance of macroeconomic exchange rate models is more than disappointing. This dismal result is also reflected in the forecasting capabilities of professional analysts: all in all, analysts are not in a position to beat naïve random walk forecasts. The root for this deficient outcome stems from the fact that professional forecasts are to a large extend influenced by actual changes in exchange rates. A reasonable explanation for this behaviour can be taken from the behavioural finance literature. To test whether this characteristic tends to be general human behaviour in an uncertain environment, we analyse the forecasting behaviour of students experimentally, using a simulated currency series. Our results indicate that topically-oriented trend adjustment behaviour (TOTA) is a general characteristic of human forecasting behaviour. Additionally, we apply a simple model to explain professional and student forecasts.
主题International Macroeconomics
关键词Foreign exchange market Behavioural finance Forecasting Anchoring heuristics Judgement Expertise
URLhttps://cepr.org/publications/dp4179
来源智库Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/533185
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Hans Peter Grüner,Elisabeth Schulte. DP4179 Speed and Quality of Collective Decision-Making, I: Imperfect Information Processing. 2004.
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