| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP4179 |
| DP4179 Speed and Quality of Collective Decision-Making, I: Imperfect Information Processing | |
| Hans Peter Grüner; Elisabeth Schulte | |
| 发表日期 | 2004-02-23 |
| 出版年 | 2004 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | The empirical performance of macroeconomic exchange rate models is more than disappointing. This dismal result is also reflected in the forecasting capabilities of professional analysts: all in all, analysts are not in a position to beat naïve random walk forecasts. The root for this deficient outcome stems from the fact that professional forecasts are to a large extend influenced by actual changes in exchange rates. A reasonable explanation for this behaviour can be taken from the behavioural finance literature. To test whether this characteristic tends to be general human behaviour in an uncertain environment, we analyse the forecasting behaviour of students experimentally, using a simulated currency series. Our results indicate that topically-oriented trend adjustment behaviour (TOTA) is a general characteristic of human forecasting behaviour. Additionally, we apply a simple model to explain professional and student forecasts. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics |
| 关键词 | Foreign exchange market Behavioural finance Forecasting Anchoring heuristics Judgement Expertise |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp4179 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/533185 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Hans Peter Grüner,Elisabeth Schulte. DP4179 Speed and Quality of Collective Decision-Making, I: Imperfect Information Processing. 2004. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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