| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP4222 |
| DP4222 Prudent Monetary Policy: Applications of Cautious LQG Control and Prediction | |
| Frederick van der Ploeg | |
| 发表日期 | 2004-02-23 |
| 出版年 | 2004 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | The study analyses the characteristics of professional exchange rate forecasts for the ?/US$ rate. The results indicate that the quality of forecasts produced by professional economists is rather poor and incompatible with the rational expectations hypothesis. This dismal result is according to our analysis attributed to the fact that professional forecasts are to a large extent influenced by actual changes in exchange rates. A reasonable explanation for this behaviour can be derived from the behavioural finance literature. According to the anchoring heuristic, decision processes are often dominated by available pieces of information even if they are obviously of no relevance. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics |
| 关键词 | Foreign exchange market Rational expectations forecasts Behavioural finance Anchoring heuristic |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp4222 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/533190 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Frederick van der Ploeg. DP4222 Prudent Monetary Policy: Applications of Cautious LQG Control and Prediction. 2004. |
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